NZ election results 2023 live updates, analysis: National, Act claim victory; Labour concedes after crushing defeat - Winston Peters celebrates comeback
Prime Minister-in waiting Christopher Luxon says he is confident National and Act can govern alone and they now have a mandate to take the country forward.
“Thank you so much and thank you New Zealand ... you have reached for hope and you have voted for change,” the National leader told supporters, prompting loud cheers.
“I am immensely proud to say that on the numbers tonight, National will be able to lead the next government,” he said
“My pledge to you is that our government will deliver for every New Zealander.”
National now had a mandate to take the country forward, Luxon said.
The latest vote count projects that National would win 50 seats, Labour 34, the Greens 14, Act 11, NZ First 8 and Te Pāti Māori with four seats.
Just over 96 per cent of the vote had been counted as at midnight.
The result transitions Luxon, 53, from a first-term MP into running the country - National and Act would have a combined 61 seats in a Parliament with a projected 121 MPs in total. That’s potentially enough to govern without needing support from NZ First.
However National will have a wary eye on the results with the prospect of an overhang in Parliament - meaning there could be more than 120 MPs in total. That could mean 61 seats might not be enough - and the prospect of Luxon having to turn to NZ First.
Special votes could also impact on Parliament’s final shape, with a final result scheduled to be declared on November 3.
There will also be a by-election held in Port Waikato on November 25 – a seat National currently holds – due to the death of Act candidate Neil Christensen during the campaign.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins has phoned Luxon and conceded defeat: “As it stands Labour is not in a position to form a government,” Hipkins told supporters. He made no reference to his future plans during his speech.
STORY CONTINUES AFTER LIVE BLOG
Vera Alves
That's a wrap, folks - but only for today! Thank you for joining us for our special election night coverage.
Join us bright and early tomorrow morning for the latest updates on the election.
Vera Alves
Vera Alves
“Winston Peters is the ultimate political phoenix,” the NZ First leader’s deputy Shane Jones said last night as the victory party danced on in the Bay of Islands.
It was a triumphant Peters who emerged to thank supporters.
“We have done the impossible,” he told a crowd of 150 at the Duke of Marlborough on Russell’s waterfront.And it seems he might yet to go further.
NZ First’s six per cent of the vote is enough to get back to Parliament but not quite enough to force the National Party into a deal.But it might yet be, and that isn’t lost on Peters.
Te Pati Maori’s success and the overhang created in Parliament means National might - just might - need the eight MPs that NZ First is taking back to Parliament.
Peters arrived to speak at 9.30pm - as late as he could delay thanking supporters before many left on the 10pm ferry to Paihia across the harbour.
He delayed and delayed as cameras clustered at the entrance to the Duke where supporters and new MPs partied inside. And then, in his contrarian fashion, he dodged the media scrum by slipping in through a side door.
Peters took to the stage, danced a jig as the music played and then launched into a short speech.
In it, Peters appeared to offer a carrot and a stick to the National Party.
After thanking supporters, he showed the spectre of NZ First in opposition: “We’ve always known that in a great democracy that people who are elected and the officials must be held to account.”
He said NZ First would do this - it would speak out and “raise the roof when other people won’t raise a finger”.
But then he showed the constructive NZ First - better in the fold than out. He warned of tough times and parlous government finances.
“Don’t forget all the promises made. There is a moment of reality seriously that is seriously needed. If we don’t to that, we go on a slide. If we can help, we will.”
He later smiled, and said he was simply being “patriotic”.
NZ First was launched in 1993 by Peters after he left the National Party. It has formed or supported governments with National and Labour, most recently in 2017 when it lent its 7.2 per cent to support Labour into power and make Jacinda Ardern prime minister.
Then in 2020 it crashed out of Parliament with 2.6% of the vote - not the first time it had failed to reach the 5 per cent threshold.
But its exit was bundled with speculation over whether it was Peters’ last hurrah. He had entered Parliament first in 1978 and was approaching his 80s.
There was never a challenge or any question NZ First would contest this year’s election. Peters’ path to power started with town hall meetings in March of which he has held dozens across the country. He picked up support from all the old places - and courted a new constituency in the conspiracy-courting community that has developed since Covid-19.
Peters told the crowd how “they laughed” when he had spoken of NZ First making a comeback.“They are not laughing now,” he said. And already he was looking ahead: “Hang on, there’s an election in 2026 and we’re getting ready for it.”
After speaking, Peters hosted a brief press conference. He took two questions and then asked for others. Without waiting to hear a response, he disappeared back through the same door from which he had suddenly emerged five minutes earlier.
After Peters left, Shane Jones said it was hard to express the enormous amount of work it took across the party to “claw our way back”.And, like Peters, he wasn’t ready to call the election with National and Act running the country. Yes, he acknowledged, there would be an overhang because of the success enjoyed by Te Pati Maori. And that meant Act’s addition to National’s MPs might not be enough.
“What a rich irony that the overhang of The Maori Party may increase the value of New Zealand First.”
Vera Alves
Vera Alves
Vera Alves
Luxon thanked Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop and all of his caucus for their relentless campaigning.
"You have given it you all and we have splashed blue all throughout the country," he said.
"Tonight it has all been worth it," he said.
He thanked the families of all candidates for their sacrifices.
He said while being elected Prime Minister is a great honour, "I have always said marrying you would be my greatest achievement" to his wife Amanda.
"I cannot wait to get stuck in," he said.
Vera Alves
"We all share an interest of living in a safe, stable country that celebrates fairness and wants the best for every New Zealander," Luxon said.
"It's what unites us that matters to me," he said.
He offered a special thanks to everyone that voted for National.
"For all those that didn't vote for National, we won't let you down either," he said.
He thanked the people of Botany who returned him as MP.
Vera Alves
Luxon said together "we will make this an even better country".
He said turning the country around may take time and it's going to be hard work.
He said he wanted to lead the country together.
Vera Alves
"Tonight you have given us the mandate to move New Zealand forward," Luxon said.
Vera Alves
"Although this campaign was long and negative, New Zealanders listened to National, but more importantly National listened to New Zealanders," he said.
Wayne Brown welcomes Luxon
Andrew Laxon
Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown said the election result was pretty much what everyone expected and was looking forward to working with the new Government.
Brown said he knew National leader Christopher Luxon better than Chris Hipkins, saying he had a private dinner with Luxon about four weeks ago that went well.
“We discussed most of things I wanted to discuss and he listened to them,” said Brown, who issued a Manifesto for Auckland, which includes policies to unlock Auckland’s potential and a demand for Wellington to stop planning Auckland.
Brown said there will be a hiatus and a while before the new Government gets locked in with new ministers, saying he will be particularly interested in the local government, transport and finance portfolios.
The mayor has written a letter in tomorrow’s Herald on Sunday where he outlines what he wants for the city from the new Government.
“I wish the incoming Government well,” said Brown, who is on a visit to Brisbane, which is a sister city to Auckland and the largest council in Australia.
Vera Alves
Meanwhile, in Nelson, with 100 per cent of the vote counted, National's Blair Cameron has a 54 vote-lead over Rachel Elizabeth Boyack. With the result so close a recount is likely.
Vera Alves
Christopher Luxon clearly keeping his options open in his speech. Pays tribute to Act and leader David Seymour, with whom he has already spoken. Also highlights fact Winston Peters has offered to help where needed. Suggests he’s open to keeping some looser arrangement with Peters.
Vera Alves
He said it looks like National will be welcoming many new MPs into caucus.
Vera Alves
The crowd is chanting "back on track".
Vera Alves
Luxon also spoke to David Seymour and congratulated him on his wins.
Vera Alves
Luxon said he earlier spoke to Chris Hipkins. He thanked him for the call and for serving New Zealand.
Vera Alves
"My pledge to you is the our government will deliver for every New Zealander," Luxon said.
Vera Alves
"I am immensely proud to say that on the numbers tonight, National will be able to lead the next government," Luxon said.
Steve Braunias' secret diary of election night
Vera Alves
11:08pm: Victorious scenes at Shed 10 in Auckland where Christopher Luxon arrives to present himself in public for the first time as the 42nd Prime Minister of New Zealand. The vexed issue of overhang (two-party government? three-party government?) can wait; right now, he makes his way through the archway of blue balloons, a massive cheer goes up, he is hugged, high-fived, and kissed, TVNZ presenters are suddenly calling him a natural campaigner who was born to lead, and he takes the stage and says: "Thank you! Thank you. Thank you so much. Thank you New Zealand!"
Vera Alves
"Thank you so much and thank you New Zealand," he said.
Vera Alves
Luxon is receiving cheers as he embraces his National counterparts and supporters before taking the stage.
Steve Braunias' secret diary of election night
Vera Alves
11:02am: Articulate scenes on Radio New Zealand's livestream, where Corin Dann interviews Shane Jones at NZ First's HQ in Russell. Asked why he thinks Labour performed so poorly in the Maori electorates, Jones says, "I think Labour failed to argue the legitimacy of the thesis of co-governance."
Andrew Laxon
Hipkins said the Cabinet would meet on Monday for the last time and would put caretake provisions in place until a new government is sworn in.
"I spoke to Christopher Luxon tonight. I said we will take his direction on any decisions that have to be taken in the caretaker period."
The Labour caucus will meet on Tuesday, he said.
"We obviously have a tough job to do there, to farewell and thank the people who aren't coming back.
"Asked if he was stepping down, he said he'd spoken to some of his team and "decisions about the future are for another day."
He said he felt for everyone who lost their seats.
"There are people who work incredibly hard, who don't make their way back into Parliament, and that is really tough. I feel for those people."
He said the special votes might shift things around "but it's clear that National will be in a position to lead a government", though the exact shape probably won't be known until the final votes are counted.
He said it had been a "really tough three years"."
It was always going to be a very difficult three years, coming off the back of our result, a very big result in 2020, and some huge hurdles to jump in the intervening period.
"If you look around the globe, no governments that have governed through the Covid-19 period have fared particularly well."
Asked about the uphill battle he'd had since becoming PM and whether he ever thought he could win, he said: "You never give up hope.
"He said there would be plenty of chances to look at the campaign.
"But at the end of the day, there's one unavoidable reality: we lost because not enough people voted for us."
Asked if he would stay on as Remutaka MP for the term, he said: "Certainly I have no intention to go anywhere."
He said he always found it hard to talk about his family.
"I think you will all know that, and I'm incredibly grateful to them for everything that they have done to support me through my whole life, but particularly in these last nine months.
"The life of a politician's family is not an easy one. We get the fun part of the job. They get the tough part of the job, which is that we're never around, and we ask them to sacrifice a lot. And that applies to all politicians, I think, but particularly those who become ministers and prime ministers."
Vera Alves
As things stand, the next Government could be determined by the Port Waikato seat taken over by National after the death of the Act MP Neil Christensen who previously held that electorate.
Vera Alves
Shane Te Pou says that the next Government will not have a long honeymoon.
Job losses will increase, inflation is still not under control and housing prices look set to increase again.
These three factors will need to be addressed quickly.
Vera Alves
A huge cheer erupts through Christchurch National HQ as Hamish Campbell is called as electorate winner for Ilam.
'He's unimaginative, uncreative and he's quite slow' - Hooton on Luxon
Vera Alves
Hooton says that if it's a three-way Government he doesn't think that Luxon would be a good leader.
"He's unimaginative, uncreative and he's quite slow."
Hooton says that Luxon couldn't tell a compelling story about New Zealand in the way that John Key could.
Te Pou agrees with Hooton on the instability a three-pronged Government would make.
Hooton says that Luxon's big mistake was his tax plan, which saw top economists turn on it.
"The tax plan wouldn't have delivered any of the numbers they said it was going to."
Hooton says that the tax mishap ultimately ended up costing the National Party a few points, which will ultimately lead National and Act being forced to work with NZ First.
Vera Alves
29 year-old Angee Nicholas may become the first National candidate to win the Te Atatu seat since 1990, although the margin is still incredibly tight, and Labour’s Phil Twyford may yet win the deeply red seat.
Nicholas said she had not had time to think about the fact she might win the seat yet.
“I have not sat down really tonight,” she said.
“Just the room of excitement at our local event, everyone was shouting and it's such a different movement [SIC],” she said.
“I think you always go to win, just prepared to give it your all,” she told the Herald.
“You never think about the end result,” she said.
Nicholas said there as “still got a lot of a way to go but, really [I’m] happy for where we are at the moment,” she said.
Vera Alves
Helen White has pulled ahead in Mt Albert. She leads by 81 votes.
Vera Alves
Auckland Councillor and former National Minister Maurice Williamson thinks Christopher Luxon should pick up the phone to Winston Peters to form some kind of governing arrangement with him – even if National could govern alone with Act.
Williamson knows a thing or two about working with Peters, having been on National’s negotiating team back in 1996 when then leader Jim Bolger cut a deal with NZ First to form a National-NZ First coalition.
Williamson has also been photographed at some NZ First events recently.
Williamson told theHerald that despite the Labour “bloodbath” National was on track for a tight majority and would need flexibility.
“The first bit of advice is he's got to pick up the phone to David Seymour and begin work there,” Williamson said.
“I would always want to try and bring in a third party for a bit of insurance,” he said.
“It may be that there are a number of things that Winston's party agrees with both ACT and National,” Williamson said.
“Luxon’s got to deal with David Seymour first,” Williamson said, but once that deal was done, a second, looser arrangement could be struck with Peters, which would give National a much more comfortable majority.
He said National might want to offer Peters his old portfolio of foreign affairs.
Vera Alves
Matthew Hooton says that the big mistake that Chris Hipkins made was not calling a snap election.
The decision to hold out until now meant early momentum was all but lost, leaving Labour languishing in this election.
Vera Alves
Luxon leaving his Remuera home now with a police escort.
'New Zealanders have rejected the legacy of Jacinda Ardern,' David Seymour said
Vera Alves
David Seymour spoke to Christopher Luxon an hour ago. Everyone is watching the results closely.
"We can work together well," says Seymour, warning that the nation needs to still wait for the special votes for clarity on whether Act and National will be able to form a Government without any help from NZ First.
Seymour says that people are very angry at the Labour Government due to the management of Covid-19.
"New Zealanders have rejected the legacy of Jacinda Ardern."
Seymour wouldn't be drawn on what portfolio he would want in a Government, turning the discussion to his campaign promises of turning the economy around and a renewed focus on the Treaty of Waitangi.
The possibility of a National and Act forming a Government without NZ First is on a knife edge.
Vera Alves
Tāmaki Makaurau candidate Takutai Tarsh Kemp and Te Pati Maori president John Tamahere surrounded by jubilant supporters.
Andrew Laxon
Chris Luxon may have to keep Winston Peters on speed dial after all
Andrew Laxon
The race just got closer for National - they now have a projected 62 seats combined with Act, which is a one-seat margin in a 121-seat Parliament if the Māori party wins four seats
Steve Braunias' secret diary of election night
Vera Alves
10:52pm: Tense scenes on election night as it all comes down to one word: overhang. National and Act are now looking to take only 63 seats and support for National has dropped from 41% to 39%. So much for "blue murder", so much for the "bluenami"; we are now in the colourless land of the overhang.
Vera Alves
Hipkins is making his way through the crowd to thank volunteers, and will give a media stand up afterwards.
Vera Alves
The first person who hugged Hipkins as he came off the stage was his mother Rose. His eyes red with tears, the second person was Grant Robertson, and then Ayesha Verrall.
Vera Alves
He thanked his partner Toni for being with him "every step of the way".
"And finally to my kids who have sacrificed more than anyone will know, I know they're going to be happy to be spending more time with their dad."
Vera Alves
"To my mum and dad for all the love you have given me and all the gaps you have plugged in the last nine months, I really want to say thank you," Hipkins said.
Vera Alves
Hipkins fought tears and his voice cracked as he thanked his family "for everything you have done for me".
The crowd rose to stand and chant "Chippy! Chippy!"
Vera Alves
Hipkins paid special thanks to "our Labour whānau" up and down the country.
Vera Alves
"When the tide comes in big, it almost invariably goes out big as well. But the Labour Party is still here, we're not going anywhere, and we will get up again like we have many times before," Hipkins said.
Vera Alves
"The Labour Party will take some time to reflect and to refresh. We now have an important role in Opposition, to hold the Government to account, and to fight for those who stand to lose from their proposed cuts," Hipkins said.
"I can promise we will keep fighting for working people because that is our history and our future."
Vera Alves
"I gave it my all to turn the tide of history, but alas that was not enough," Hipkins said.
Steve Braunias' secret diary of election night
Vera Alves
10:26pm: Poignant scenes at the Labour HQ where Chris Hipkins arrives looking as sick as the parrot in the Monty Python dead parrot sketch. He looks deceased. He looks demised. He looks ceased to be.
Vera Alves
He knew it would be an uphill battle, as no Government had had a new leader in the middle of the term and continued to win.
'The honour of my life' - Hipkins on having been NZ's Prime Minister
Vera Alves
Hipkins said becoming PM was the "honour of my life".
Vera Alves
He offered his "warmest" congratulations to those entering Parliament, and he thanked those in his seat of Remutaka for continuing to place their trust in him.
Vera Alves
Hipkins paid tribute to MPs who were not returning to Parliament.
"I know you gave it your all and you deserved a better outcome than this one."
'We refused to leave people behind' - Hipkins
Vera Alves
He said the Gods had thrown some curveballs at Labour including a terror attack and a global pandemic, during which New Zealand had the lowest number of Covid deaths in the developed world. "Now that is a real outcome."
"We lived our values and I believe New Zealand is a better place for that. I want you to stay proud of that. We put people first. We cared. We refused to leave people behind. That is what we do. It is what the Labour Party does."
Vera Alves
Plenty of jeers from the Christchurch National crowd to Hipkins' claim tonight's result "is not what anybody wanted".
Vera Alves
Cheers erupted from Act supporters when Hipkins stated Labour wasn’t in a position to form a government. They are jeering at him as he talks about the 77,000 kids being lifted out of poverty
Vera Alves
"We moved towards better honouring of the Treaty and I am incredibly proud of that. It hasn't been easy," Hipkins said.
Vera Alves
"We sought to bring people together, to unite, not divide," Hipkins said.
Vera Alves
He talked about Labour's efforts to reduce child poverty, lower emissions, and build public houses. Some in the crowd are getting emotional, wiping away tears.
Vera Alves
At the National Party HQ, you can barely hear Chris Hipkins' concession speech over the sound of National supporters cheering.
Vera Alves
Hipkins said despite the challenges of the last years, Labour had protected those who needed help the most.
Vera Alves
"Unfortunately the results tonight show that that wasn't enough," Hipkins said.
He had called Luxon to congratulate him.
"As it stands Labour is not in a position to form a government."
Hipkins addresses audience at Labour Party HQ
Vera Alves
Hipkins is getting a standing ovation as he takes the stage.
He had to silence loud shouts of "Chippy! Chippy!"
"Thank you for everything you have done in these last six weeks. From the bottom of my heart, thank you so much."
Andrew Laxon
National is down again, to 39.9%. The longer the night goes, the more the odds firm of a three-party coalition being required.
Nanaia Mahuta concedes
Vera Alves
Nanaia Mahuta has conceded in Hauraki-Waikato - she's out of Parliament.
Andrew Laxon
National's support has reduced to 40% with 75.4% of the vote counted.
Winston Peters will be getting his negotiating notes in order, no doubt.
Vera Alves
Labour's party president Jill Day thanked everyone for an "energetic and principled" campaign. "Our Labour whanau have lived their values and worked so so hard."
She said she had been all over the country during the campaign, and was "blown away by the aroha, the passion and the energy of this movement. From me to every single one of you, thank you."
She said there was an unprecedented level of intimidation by "fringe" elements in the campaign, but she was proud of the Labour campaign.
Vera Alves
National's Melissa Lee holds a 1 vote lead over Helen White in Mt Albert with 66.7 per cent of the vote counted.
Vera Alves
Kieran McAnulty has conceded.
Andrew Laxon
The chance of National and Act forming a government without NZ First is hovering between one and two seats, depending on who wins the crucial Māori electorate of Te Tai Tokerau. Currently Labour's Kelvin Davis leads by just 21 votes with 63 per cent of the vote counted, reducing the overhang in Parliament and giving National-Act a two-seat cushion. Follow the latest on our interactive map here
Vera Alves
Hipkins arrives at Labour Party HQ.
Vera Alves
Former Labour MP Stuart Nash said the party should have gone to an election in April.
Nash said at that time Luxon was "a mess."
Nash said its "a death by a thousand cuts" and said that ministers like himself, that were embroiled in scandals, couldn't be blamed for everything.
Vera Alves
John Campbell said Hipkins is buggered. "He really has had enough," he said.
Vera Alves
A chorus of boos ring out from National's Christchurch headquarters as Hipkins arrives on the screen.
Vera Alves
"This country has voted for change and a record number have voted for real change," Seymour said.
He said ACT will work tirelessly to make sure New Zealand delivers the promise it has made to so many people.
"We are all New Zealanders who seek one five millionth of the opportunity that this country has to offer and that is what ACT promises," he said.
'Hold your horses,' Hipkins tells reporters
Vera Alves
Chris Hipkins has arrived at Labour's gathering and was reluctant to speak to media, saying he wanted to speak to party faithful inside first.
"Hold your horses" he told reporters asking for his reaction to Labour's devastating defeat.
Andrew Laxon
Raucous applause comes from the crowd when David Seymour thanks Epsom and Tāmaki for electing Act candidates in himself and van Velden.
“It is a future of change and a future of real change,” Seymour said of the next government.
Andrew Laxon
Matthew Hooton just told the Herald's live coverage that the election result is trending towards the "three-party monster" of a National-Act-NZ First government
Vera Alves
Mt Albert is getting tighter, with National's Melissa Lee now holding just a 37 vote lead over Labour's Helen White with 63 per cent of the vote counted.
Steve Braunias' secret diary of election night
Vera Alves
10:20pm: Dreamy scenes at the Act HQ where David Seymour tells supporters he will perform tirelessly in government. He looks a bit tired.
Vera Alves
It appears National's deputy leader Nicola Willis has failed to win Ōhāriu.
With 74.6% of the vote counted, Labour's Greg O'Connor has extended his lead to 956 votes.
It's the first time Willis has stood in Ōhāriu, previously running in Wellington Central, that the Greens look to have won this time round.
Vera Alves
David Seymour has arrived and declared that more people than ever have voted for real change.
Seymour said: "I've long said that getting elected is not an achievement, it's an opportunity to do good".
Seymour’s speech is centered around how Act wants to ensure people in New Zealand were treated equally.
Vera Alves
Key said he believed Luxon would be a "tremendous prime minister'.
Vera Alves
Sir John Key has just arrived at National's election night party.
Vera Alves
National leader Christopher Luxon leaves his home on the way to the party's campaign HQ in Auckland..
Vera Alves
Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins leaves his house in Upper Hutt.
Vera Alves
The East Coast electorate is heading closer to turning blue. National's Dana Kirkpatrick has a 2827 lead over Labour's Tamati Coffey with 64.2 per cent of the vote counted. Coffey - the former TV weatherman - was moved into the election race on the East Coast after Kiri Allan's retirement following her arrest for an alleged driving offence and eventual retirement.
Vera Alves
Green co-leader James Shaw is speaking in Auckland.
The crowd went quiet when he spoke about National’s likely victory.
“It does seem all but certain that the first Green Government is drawing to a close,” he said.
“Our friends in the Labour Party are having a very tough time. A lot of good people will not return to Parliament next week.”
Shaw said all parties now needed to come together “in the national interest” and put the “petty partisan bickering” of the campaign behind them.
He hoped parties would be able to put aside their differences to “govern in the interest of the many and not the few” and confront generational problems like climate change.
“But tonight, we can hold our heads up high.”
Vera Alves
Green Party co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson.
Vera Alves
Tamatha Paul and Julie Anne Genter hug on stage. On current numbers, both would be electorate MPs.
Vera Alves
Blair Cameron's lead in Nelson has been trimmed to 106 votes over Labour's Rachel Elizabeth Boyack.
STORY CONTINUES
Earlier: What to watch out for
The right began today hoping for enough support for a National-Act coalition. If not, National leader Christopher Luxon has said he will pick up the phone and call NZ First leader Winston Peters to prevent another Labour-led government.
Before tonight’s vote count began the Herald’s poll of polls had Labour on 26.8 per cent, the Greens on 12.4 per cent and Te Pāti Māori on 2.6 per cent. It had National on 35.5 per cent, Act on 11 per cent and NZ First on 6.1 per cent.
That would have translated to a National, Act and NZ First having the numbers to form a government.
As of the end of Thursday, 1.1 million votes had already been cast in advance. This is slightly ahead of 2017 levels but behind 2020, when there was a greater incentive to vote early given we were still in the Covid-19 pandemic.
The weather may also have been a factor in today’s voter turnout. Atrocious weather in Wellington and Canterbury today, for example, will do little to encourage people to get out and vote.
The final count is due to be announced on November 3, which includes special votes that are cast outside a voter’s electorate (including from overseas). Last election, two seats swung to the left after special votes were counted.
The Māori seats will also be fascinating. Te Pāti Māori will need to win a seat to return to Parliament unless it reaches the 5 per cent threshold, which it hasn’t been close to in any of the recent polls.
If the party wins several seats, and more than what it would based solely on its share of the party vote, it will create an overhang in Parliament. This would change the magic number required for a Parliamentary majority from 61 to 62.
The key electorates to watch
Tāmaki: Will National’s Simon O’Connor hold his seat or lose it to Act’s Brooke van Velden?
Auckland Central: Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick faces a fight to keep her seat against National’s Mahesh Muralidhar.
Wellington Central: The race is wide open, with Labour’s Ibrahim Omer, the Greens’ Tamatha Paul and National’s Scott Sheeran all vying for the win after incumbent Grant Robertson decided to be a list-only candidate.
Rongotai: Green MP Julie Anne Genter fancies her chances against new Labour candidate Fleur Fitzsimons, who, if she wins, might be the only new Labour face for the coming term.
Ōhāriu: Will Labour MP Greg O’Connor, who needs to win to return to Parliament, keep his seat or lose it to National deputy leader Nicola Willis?
Waiariki: Te Pāti Māori Rawhiri Waititi is expected to keep his seat, but if he doesn’t, it puts the return of Te Pāti Māori to Parliament in jeopardy as the other contests are all expected to be much closer.
Te Tai Hauauru: The electorate is being contested by Hāwera-based Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Labour list MP Soraya Peke-Mason. Incumbent Adrian Rurawhe decided to be a list-only candidate.
Ikaroa-Rawhiti: Te Pati Maori’s Meka Whaitiri, who quit the Labour Party earlier this year, is hoping to keep her seat against a challenge from Labour’s Cushla Tangaere Manuel.
Hauraki-Waikato: Labour’s Nanaia Mahuta is facing a new challenge in Te Pāti Māori’s Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke, who is only 21.
Hutt South: Ginny Andersen is the incumbent, but the Labour MP’s challenger - National’s Chris Bishop - has previously held the seat and may well win again with the turning of the red tide. Andersen may not return to Parliament if she loses, given her position on the party list.
Wairarapa: The same equation for Andersen also applies to incumbent Labour MP Kieran McAnulty, who faces a challenge from National’s Mike Butterick.
Northland: Expected to be won easily by National’s Grant McCallum. But if NZ First falls short of 5 per cent, it could still return to Parliament if Shane Jones wins this seat.
New MPs and potential for a greatly diminished Labour caucus
With 65 MPs this term and Labour polling below 30 per cent, the party faces losing up to 30 MPs. Who they will be depends on who wins their electorate contests, as well as what Labour’s party vote finishes on.
Several MPs are relatively low on the party list but should win their seats and return to Parliament, including Phil Twyford (Te Atatū), Michael Wood (Mt Roskill), Helen White (Mt Albert), Arena Williams (Manurewa), Ingrid Leary (Taieri), Lemauga Lydia Sosene (Māngere) and Jenny Salesa (Panmure‑Ōtāhuhu).
They could push out current ministers and MPs who are list-only (Andrew Little, David Parker, Willie Jackson), or who may not hold their electorate seats, including Jo Luxton (Rangitata), Ginny Anderson (Hutt South), Priyanca Radhakrishnan (Maungakiekie) and Willow-Jean Prime (Northland).
Act, the Greens and NZ First - if it makes the 5 per cent threshold - are all looking like they’ll bring in a host of new MPs.
That includes NZ First candidate Casey Costello, former spokeswoman for Hobson’s Pledge and chairwoman of the Taxpayers’ Union, who may end up being a crucial bridge between NZ First and Act.
It will be interesting to see if NZ First wins enough votes to see Tanya Unkovich become an MP. The life coach and author has so far not commented on whether she joined an online channel dedicated to identifying New Zealanders for “crimes against humanity” supposedly committed during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Depending on the amount of the wasted vote, 8 or 9 per cent could be enough for NZ First candidate and lawyer Kirsten Murfitt to become an MP. She has not responded to reports of anti-vax comments online that she apparently posted under a pseudonym, including referring to the Covid-19 vaccine as a “death shot”, or the vaccinated as “technically no longer ‘human’”.
Neither Unkovich nor Murfitt have responded to requests for comment. Peters has defended the party candidates, saying they had been vetted and there was nothing to be concerned about.
Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the press gallery and is a former deputy political editor.