Hipkins, Luxon, and the charisma vacuum ruling New Zealand politics

Tuesday, 9 June 2026

Joel Maxwell (Te Rarawa) is a senior journalist.

OPINION: So with the general election decided, it’s time for the coalition wrangling to begin.

Don’t laugh, I’m only kinda joking when I say a protracted six months of negotiations are underway.

I know, of course, there’s still a vote coming up on November 7, but from what I can see, the main parties are already trapped in the rough outlines of a result.

There was a time - about a year ago - when Labour, The Greens, and Te Pāti Māori (TPM), could have governed in coalition.

Christopher Luxon admits about five backbenchers are 'moaning' as new polling shows Labour overtaking National and the coalition losing its majority. Luxon maintains he has the full confidence of his caucus ahead of tomorrow's meeting.

Read this story in te reo Māori and English here. / Pānuitia tēnei i te reo Māori me te reo Pākehā ki konei.

Since then, only two parties have consistently risen in averaged polls – Labour and New Zealand First (more recently TOP might be rising).

This means that Labour, although improving, has simply run out of alternative pathways to victory: It’s with Winston Peters or over top of him.

Over top looks hard. Graphically speaking, I’ve seen the NZ First line - it goes up and up, a dark middle finger pointing to the heavens. Bending it would be nearly impossible without a risky all-out assault by Labour.

So, we have option two - the tip-toe election.

With an eye to the slim chance of a deal, Labour would have to take aim at National and ACT, but try not to unduly aggravate NZ First - building a case to govern for due consideration by Peters come year’s end.

Kiwis love falling in love with their prime ministers, but a glut of bland has allowed Winston Peters to wriggle back into focus. (File photo)

Actually, I think I’ll call this the ick election.

Am I oversimplifying? Maybe, but honestly, I’ve always believed politics is just an analogue of real life situationships.

Peters says he’ll never go on a date with Hipkins. Hipkins, however, won’t rule out dating Peters.

Meanwhile the Greens and TPM want to date Hipkins. The three of them grew up together, went to school together, hung out at the mall. But now the Greens and TPM have been catastrophically friend-zoned. In the case of TPM, Hipkins is actually throwing his best candidates at the Māori electorates in a frantic political swipe-left.

Meanwhile Luxon is 90% sure that Peters won’t dump him. Luxo’s got his $11 million campaign chest, and they’re all in a nice stable throuple with ACT’s David Seymour - a power throuple if you will - and who wouldn’t want that? Besides, they all hang out with the same cool group of friends - fossil fuel, big dairy, tobacco - and who else would Peters pal around with on the Left? Big Lentil?

But seriously, I forgot to mention the biggest players in this messy drama: you and me.

Jacinda Ardern, Helen Clark and John Key were each hugely popular prime ministers at their peak.

New Zealanders always need to keep falling in love with our politicians. It’s our weakness.

We fell in love with Helen Clark, then John Key, then Jacinda Ardern. Each was hugely popular, unstoppable at their peak.

Unfortunately those are not words I associate with Luxon or Hipkins.

There’s a charisma vacuum, a glut of bland, that finally allowed Peters to wriggle into our minority psyche.

On the one hand, this is a real against-the-odds triumph of persistence. I mean, there were still American Civil War veterans alive when Peters was born - and now he’s finally peaking.

“I’ve always believed politics is just an analogue of real life situationships. Peters says he’ll never go on a date with Hipkins. Hipkins, however, won’t rule out dating Peters,” writes Joel Maxwell.

On the other hand, persistence and a cheeky grin - and the absence of other options - shouldn’t be deciding factors in striking up a relationship with anybody, even Winston Peters - especially Peters.

But try to be philosophical. Lines go up and then, as the sun sets, lines go down. Such is the way of life and politics and love.

This would likely be Peters' last term. I expect once he’s retired, or whatever, NZ First will resemble one of those failed eastern European states after the commies cleared out. Chaos, violence, purges, heads rolling. Shane Jones.

Crappy policy that targets minority groups isn’t enough on its own. There's an uncanny alchemy at play between personality and toxicity with Peters that, sorry, none of the rest of his crew can replicate.

Either way, the building economic pain we’re feeling could itself become an unstoppable force. Surprises await. Not even a cheeky grin can withstand the curse of incumbency during bad times.