Mā Luxon, mā Hipkins, mā te kore ihi hoki e whakatere te tōrangapū o Aotearoa

Tuesday, 9 June 2026

Joel Maxwell (Te Rarawa) is a senior journalist.

Kua whakamāoritia tēnei pūrongo e tētahi hinengaro rorohiko, ā, kua hihiratia e te kaiwhakamāori a Puna, a Joel Maxwell, nāna te pūrongo i whakapai hoki i mua i te whakaputa hei pūrongo reorua. Nā Straker me Microsoft te hinengaro rorohiko i whakawhanake.

This story, originally in English only, was translated into reo Māori by an AI tool then checked and edited by Stuff kaiwhakamāori Joel Maxwell before publication as a bilingual news story. The AI tool was developed by Straker and Microsoft.

HUATAU: Nā reira kua whakatauria te pōti nui, kua tae ki te wā kia tīmata te tautohetohe haumitanga. Kaua e kata, he āhua whakakata noa iho ahau ina kī atu ahau e ono marama roa o ngā whakaritenga.

OPINION: So with the general election decided, it’s time for the coalition wrangling to begin. Don’t laugh, I’m only kinda joking when I say a protracted six months of negotiations are underway.

Read this story in English here. / Pānuitia tēnei i te reo Pākehā ki konei.

E mōhio ana ahau - tērā tonu te pōti e haere mai ana i te Noema 7, engari mai i ngā mea e kitea ana e au, kua mau kē ngā rōpū matua i roto i ngā hua o tētahi otinga.

I know - of course there’s still a vote coming up on November 7, but from what I can see, the main parties are already trapped in the rough outlines of a result.

I tērā tau e ai ki ngā tirohanga tauanga i tāea e te Pāti Reipa, Ngā Kākāriki me te Pāti Māori (TPM) te tū hei kāwanatanga i roto i tētahi haumitanga.

There was a time - about a year ago - when Labour, The Greens, and Te Pāti Māori (TPM), could have governed in coalition.

Mai i taua wā, e rua anake ngā rōpū kua rite tonu te piki ake i roto i te toharite tirohanga tauanga – Reipa me Aotearoa Tuatahi (kua kake ake TOP inātata nei, pea).

Since then, only two parties have consistently risen in averaged polls – Labour and New Zealand First (more recently TOP might be rising).

Ko te tikanga o tēnei, ahakoa kei te pai ake te noho a Reipa, kua pau noa iho ngā ara ki te wikitōria: Kei a Winston Peters, kei runga rānei i a ia.

This means that Labour, although improving, has simply run out of alternative pathways to victory: It’s with Winston Peters or over top of him.

A, he uaua te āhua o runga. Hei kōrero kauwhata, kua kite ahau i te rārangi Aotearoa Tuatahi - ka kaha piki ake, he matiwaenga e tohutohu ana ki ngā rangi tuhāhā. E tata ana ki te kore e taea te whakapiko me te kore whakaekenga tino mōrearea a Reipa.

Over top looks hard. Graphically speaking, I’ve seen the NZ First line - it goes up and up, a dark middle finger pointing to the heavens. Bending it would be nearly impossible without a risky all-out assault by Labour.

Nā reira, kei a rātou te kōwhiringa rua - te kōkiritanga konihi.

So, we have option two - the tip-toe election.

Me te titiro ki te paku āheinga o tētahi whakaritenga, tērā pea ka whakaekea e Reipa ngā pāti Nahinara, ACT noki, me te kore whakararu i Aotearoa Tuatahi - kia hanga i tētahi tono kāwanatanga mā Peters e whakaae a te whiore o te tau.

With an eye to the slim chance of a deal, Labour would have to take aim at National and ACT, but try not to unduly aggravate NZ First - building a case to govern for due consideration by Peters come year’s end.

Ko te tikanga, ki taku whakaaro ka karangatia tēnei e au ko te pōti ick.

Actually, I think I’ll call this the ick election.

Kei te whakangāwari rawa ahau? Tērā pea, engari he pono, i whakapono tonu ahau he tairitenga noa iho te ao tōrangapū o ngā āhuatanga tūturu.

Am I oversimplifying? Maybe, but honestly, I’ve always believed politics is just an analogue of real life situationships.

E kī ana a Peters e kore rawa ia e whakaipo i a Hipkins. Heoi anō, e kore a Hipkins e whakahaere i te mārena ki a Peters.

Peters says he’ll never go on a date with Hipkins. Hipkins, however, won’t rule out dating Peters.

Ināianei e hiahia ana ngā Kākāriki me TPM ki te whakaipo i a Hipkins. I tipu tahi te tokotoru, ka haere tahi ki te kura, ka tutaki i ngā toa. Engari ināianei kua tino whakahoatia ngā Kākāriki me TPM. I te āhuatanga o TPM, ka maka a Hipkins āna kaitono tino pai i ngā rohe pōti Māori i tētahi kaha muku-māui.

Meanwhile the Greens and TPM want to date Hipkins. The three of them grew up together, went to school together, hung out at the mall. But now the Greens and TPM have been catastrophically friend-zoned. In the case of TPM, Hipkins is actually throwing his best candidates at the Māori electorates in a frantic political swipe-left.

I tēnei wā e 90% e mōhio ana a Luxon e kore a Peters e mahue i a ia. Kei a Luxo tana pouaka whakahau $11 miriona, ā, kei roto katoa rātou i tētahi takitoru pai me David Seymour o ACT - he takitoru tino kaha - ā, ko wai e kore e hiahia ki tēnā? Tērā anō, e noho ana rātou katoa me te rōpū hoa kōangiangi ōrite - he hinu mātātoka, he miraka kau, he tupeka - ā, ko wai anō ka noho tahi a Peters i te paihau mauī? Lentil Nui?

Meanwhile Luxon is 90% sure that Peters won’t dump him. Luxo’s got his $11 million campaign chest, and they’re all in a nice stable throuple with ACT’s David Seymour - a power throuple if you will - and who wouldn’t want that? Besides, they all hang out with the same cool group of friends - fossil fuel, big dairy, tobacco - and who else would Peters pal around with on the Left? Big Lentil?

Heoi anō, i wareware ahau ki te kōrero i ngā kaitākaro nui rawa i roto i tēnei whakaari pōrearea: ko koe me ahau.

But seriously, I forgot to mention the biggest players in this messy drama: you and me.

Me aroha tonu ngā tāngata o Aotearoa ki o tātou kaitōrangapū. Ko tō tātou ngoikoretanga.

New Zealanders always need to keep falling in love with our politicians. It’s our weakness.

I aroha tātou ki a Helen Clark, kātahi ko John Key, kātahi ko Jacinda Ardern. He tino paingia ia tangata, e kore e taea te tū i to rātou taumata teitei.

We fell in love with Helen Clark, then John Key, then Jacinda Ardern. Each was hugely popular, unstoppable at their peak.

Ehara ērā i ngā kupu e pāhono ana ahau ki a Luxon, ki Hipkins rānei.

Unfortunately those are not words I associate with Luxon or Hipkins.

Tērā tētahi ngongo mana, he nui o te māhorahora, kātahi anō ka whakaaetia a Peters kia kōpikopiko ki roto i tō tātou hinengaro tokoiti.

There’s a charisma vacuum, a glut of bland, that finally allowed Peters to wriggle into our minority psyche.

I tētahi taha, he tino whakamanamana tēnei o te manawanui. Ko taku kōrero, kei te ora tonu ngā hōia o te Pakanga Tūmatanui o Amerika i te wā i whānau ai a Peters - ā, ināianei kua eke a ia ki tana tino taumata.

On the one hand this is a real against-the-odds triumph of persistence. I mean, there were still American Civil War veterans alive when Peters was born - and now he’s finally peaking.

I tērā taha, ko te manawanui me te menemene whakatoi - me te ngaro o ētahi atu kōwhiringa - kaua e whakatau i tētahi pātahitanga ki tētahi tangata, ahakoa ko Winston Peters - inarā hoki ko Peters.

On the other hand, persistence and a cheeky grin - and the absence of other options - shouldn’t be deciding factors in striking up a relationship with anybody, even Winston Peters - especially Peters.

Engari me ngana ki te whakaaro tautake. Ka piki ake ngā raina, ā, i te tōnga o te rā, ka heke ngā raina. Koia tēnā te āhua o te ora, o te tōrangapū me te aroha.

But try to be philosophical. Lines go up and then, as the sun sets, lines go down. Such is the way of life and politics and love.

Tērā pea ko te wā whakamutunga tēnei o Peters. Ki tōku whakaaro, inā tāoki ia, te aha rānei, ka waiho Aotearoa Tuatahi pērā ki tētahi o aua whenua i Uropa ki te rāwhiti i te wā o tā ngā angatōpū wehe. Te ngangau, te tutu, te whakakorenga, te takahuri o ngā upoko. Shane Jones.

This would likely be Peters' last term. I expect once he’s retired, or whatever, NZ First will resemble one of those failed eastern European states after the commies cleared out. Chaos, violence, purges, heads rolling. Shane Jones.

Kāore ka rawaka te kaupapahere pōauau e tāmi ana i ngā ahurea tokoiti. Tērā tētahi āhuatanga rerekē e tākaro ana i waenganui i te tuakiri me te tūkinotanga ki a Peters, ā, ka aroha, kāore e taea e tētahi o ana kaimahi te tārua.

Crappy policy that targets minority groups isn’t enough on its own. There's an uncanny alchemy at play between personality and toxicity with Peters that, sorry, none of the rest of his crew can replicate.

Ahakoa rā, ko te mamae ōhanga e rongo ana tātou ka noho hei tōpana kāore e taea te tū. Ka haramai ngā whakaohomauri. Kāore e taea e te menemene whakatoi te ātete i te tūkino o te noho kāwanatanga i nga wā kino.

Either way, the building economic pain we’re feeling could itself become an unstoppable force. Surprises await. Not even a cheeky grin can withstand the curse of incumbency during bad times.