National dips below 30% in second poll

Wednesday, 15 October 2025

The OCR has been slashed to 2.5%, its lowest since July 2022, easing pressure on homeowners. Political correspondent Zane Small reports on how the move could shift mortgage costs, voter sentiment, and the government’s economic fortunes.

A new poll has seen the National Party dip below the 30% mark for the second time in a fortnight, adding more pressure onto Prime Minister Christopher Luxon.

If the poll was repeated on election day National would be in opposition with 14 fewer MPs.

The dreadful numbers for the party came just hours after The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure New Zealand showed 49% of Kiwis thought National should change its leader, including 23% of National supporters.

In the October Anacta/Talbot Mills corporate poll, obtained by The Post, National’s party vote support had dropped to 29% from 31% the month prior.

Talbot Mills is also the Labour Party’s private pollster.

Labour was steady on 35%, while NZ First had risen two points to 12%, the Greens were steady at 10%, ACT grew one point to 8%, and Te Pāti Māori were steady at 4%.

If repeated at the election, presuming that Te Pāti Māori retained its electorate seats, this would result in a narrow 61-seat majority for the left bloc of Labour, the Greens, and Te Pāti Māori.

National would be in Opposition with a caucus of just 35, and potentially very few list MPs - meaning senior MPs like Nicola Willis and Paul Goldsmith could be out of Parliament.

But the poll had some slightly better news for Luxon.

He was up one point to 21% in the preferred prime minister rankings, although still lagged behind Labour leader Chris Hipkins who had dropped one point to 24%. The Government’s overall performance rating had also improved slightly, but was still underwater.

The poll was conducted from October 1 to October 10 with a representative sample of 1097 voting age Kiwis.

It is the fourth consecutive Talbot Mills poll to show Labour retaking Government.

A poll by National’s pollster Curia conducted during a similar time period also had National below 30% on 29.6% - although it only had Labour at 31%.

National MPs were prickly when asked about the bad polling on their way into the House on Wednesday.

Asked about the fact that half the country wanted National to change its leader, Luxon said there was “no vacancy”.

Labur leader Chris Hipkins said he would face “whomever is the leader of the National Party” at the next election.

“I know what I was elected here to do in 2023 and I'm been very focused on that from day one. The reason why I came to Parliament four years ago, was to make sure that this country realises all the great potential that's in it,” Luxon said.

Luxon said he had seen “three polls in the last 10 days” but was not focused on them.

“New Zealanders will get their chance next year to make their decision as to whether they think we've done a good job.”

Hipkins said Luxon needed to accept responsibility for the “shocking term” of Government but, asked if Luxon should step down, said Luxon had been elected prime minister.

“I’m aiming to beat whomever is the leader of the National Party at the next election.”

Former National leader Judith Collins said Luxon was doing a “great job” and once the economy turned in the right direction National’s numbers would improve.

“I find him extremely good to deal with. So highly intelligent, hard working, has some courage, which not everybody in these roles has, can stand up and take some big, big hits for the country and make those big decisions,” Collins said.

National’s Simeon Brown said the party was “incredibly supportive” of Luxon and that Labour was “gaslighting New Zealand”.

“We're dealing with the tough economic times left behind by the previous government. They left inflation going up and interest rates out of control and we're having to clean up the mess left behind,” Brown said.

Labour was at 34% and National were at 31% in The Post/Freshwater Strategies poll with Infrastructure New Zealand, which was conducted over a similar time period - although National led the Government on those numbers.

The TVNZ/Verian poll released earlier this week had better news for National, with the party at 34% to Labour’s 32%, and still leading the Government.

The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure NZ interviewed n=1050 eligible voters in New Zealand, aged 18+ online, between October 3-8, 2025. Margin of error +/- 3%. Data are weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters.