Labour extends lead on cost of living as voters focus on household pressures
Thursday, 18 December 2025
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Relieving the cost of living continues to dominate voters’ minds, and Labour is extending a trend that has seen it increasingly trusted over the National-led Government to manage household pressures.
The latest The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure New Zealand shows 56% of voters rank cost of living as a top priority, with a Labour-led government leading National by 15 points on managing household pressures.
Healthcare (50%) and jobs/unemployment (28%) remain top concerns for voters, and Labour is seen as better positioned than the National-led Government to handle them. The main Opposition party dominates on environmental and housing issues.
The swing has been dramatic. In our August 2023 poll, ahead of the last election, National held a commanding 23-point lead over Labour on cost of living.
By October 2025, that had flipped to a 16-point deficit, with only 31% of voters trusting National compared with 47% for Labour. The latest data suggests Labour’s momentum on household issues is continuing into the end of the year. However, National still leads on ensuring that the economy is strong.
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This week, the Government’s economic credibility faces a fresh test. On Tuesday, Treasury released forecasts that reflected a slower economy, lower tax take, and higher debt than expected. The Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) showed no surplus now forecast until 2029/30.
Thursday will see the release of gross domestic product figures for the September quarter. June quarter data surprised many with a 0.9% contraction, underlining the government was struggling with the challenge of sustaining growth.
Finance Minister Nicola Willis defended the Government’s record.
“Kiwis have been through a tough few years, and our Government has been working hard to fix the basics and build the future,” she said. “Inflation is down, the Government’s books are on track to return to surplus, unnecessary red tape is being stripped away and big projects are being consented.
“Economists are forecasting economic growth to accelerate and unemployment to fall next year.”
Willis said voters could “look forward to more jobs and higher incomes”.
She added: “The election of a Labour-led government would put all of these hard-fought gains at risk.”
While cost of living, healthcare, and jobs remain the top concerns, voters are paying increasing attention to fiscal responsibility, the poll shows.
Reducing taxation and government spending (18%) and managing national debt (12%) have both risen in importance since October.
When asked to select the single most important issue, 32% of voters chose cost of living, followed by healthcare (21%) and ensuring a strong economy (11%).
Voters are divided on who is to blame for the current economic situation.
A quarter (25%) cite the current National-led coalition Government, 21% the previous Labour Government, and 9% the Reserve Bank.
Political allegiance heavily shapes these perceptions: Coalition supporters overwhelmingly blame Labour, while opposition voters target the current Government.
The polling also shows a clear split in perceived competence.
Christopher Luxon and the National Party lead on improving defence & national security (+13 net advantage) reducing crime & improving social order (+9), and managing national debt & borrowing levels (+9). However, on the latter, National has dropped three points since October.
And while it once had a 30-point lead on ensuring the economy is strong in August 2023, that advantage has now dropped to just 6 points.
Chris Hipkins and the Labour Party are out in front on increasing welfare and benefits, education and training opportunities, reducing carbon emissions and improving race relations and harmony.
Hipkins said the sentiment reflected that the Government had broken promises to fix a cost of living crisis.
“Christopher Luxon said that he was going to bring the cost of living down. All New Zealanders can see the cost of living has continued to go up under his leadership, and family budgets are being more squeezed now than they ever have before.
“The lessons that we learned from our last time in government is that we've got to promise things that are realistic and that we know that we can deliver…everything we promise at the next election will be a promise that we know we can deliver on.”
Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,031 eligible voters in New Zealand, aged 18+ online, between 5-10 December 2025. Margin of Error +/- 3%. Data are weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters.
The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll is funded by Infrastructure NZ to encourage debate about issues that are important to the future of New Zealand.