Red renaissance? Or has the country just got the blues

Sunday, 19 October 2025

Andrea Vance is National Affairs Editor for The Post and Sunday Star-Times.

OPINION: Labour’s back in front – barely – and the headlines make it sound like a resurrection. It isn’t.

This week’s The Post–Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure New Zealand puts Chris Hipkins’ party on 34%, up seven points since election night, and a whisker ahead of National on 31.

Labour’s been in this territory before — both Curia and Anacta/Talbot Mills have both had them at 34% or higher on a handful of occasions this year.

What’s changed isn’t the number, but the story underneath it.

Labour’s support is rebuilding from the working and middle class up, not from the inner-city left.

The Greens are steady; this red comeback (although it’s more of a weary re-group than a comeback) is drawn from centrist, suburban, and provincial voters who’ve had enough of food-price roulette and mortgage anxiety.

Chris Hipkins leads Christopher Luxon 45 to 36 as preferred prime minister.

That’s the scoreline, but the detail is richer. Young voters (55%) and women (46%) lean strongly toward Hipkins; older voters and men remain with Luxon.

By income, the pattern’s the same. Lower-income voters (under $70k) are drifting back toward Labour; middle earners ($70–150k) are warming too; while the high-income bracket remains blue.

Regionally, it’s shallow but broad. Wellington - which just returned a Labour mayor -remains the party anchor, but Auckland is still frosty.

(Both cities are the most negative about local economic conditions, which could yet work in Labour’s favour if it solidifies into anti-incumbent sentiment.)

On the issues that make or break elections, voters are no longer punishing Labour for last term.

Voters are now giving Hipkins’ team a reluctant trust to better manage cost of living (47%), health care (48%) and housing (45%).

Importantly, Luxon has gone backwards on every attribute since June, while Hipkins has either held or improved. The psychological contrast between steady and struggling is starting to stick.

Of course, the national mood is as miserable as the weather. More than half (54%) think the country’s on the wrong track (up five points since June).

But the crucial detail is who they blame. Responsibility for the economy is now split almost evenly between the current government (28%) and the previous Labour one (25%).

The “it’s all Labour’s fault” narrative has worn thin. Labour holds leads or parity on almost all social and economic priorities. (National is still ahead on defence, crime, and the economy, but the margin is shrinking.)

On dealing with cost of living, voters’ main pre-occupation, Hipkins’ party has had a six point bump since June. Healthcare, housing, education, welfare, and curbing emissions are all Labour territory.

The overall trend shows a four-poll streak of movement toward Hipkins and Labour on nearly every key issue.

That’s quietly significant. Hipkins is no longer defined entirely by the ghosts of Ardernism or the sins of Grant Robertson. Voters are starting to look at Luxon’s government on its own terms and it’s giving them the ick.

The leadership story is also telling.

Half the electorate (49%) wants to see the back of Luxon before the next election. Once they start imagining your successor, they’ve already left you.

Whereas Hipkins is boringly safe.

Only 18% say they’d be more likely to back Labour if he were ousted. Almost two thirds (62%) say it would make no difference.

He’s tolerated, not adored. But that tolerance is keeping him in the job, for now.

Kieran McAnulty tops the fantasy football list of preferred successors at 23%, a detail that won’t go unnoticed in Labour’s caucus Signal chat.

Supporters like the shape of the former local government minister, but no-one is demanding his promotion. (Still, it’s a solid number: Chris Bishop leads Luxon’s pack of successors on 16%. And Barbara Edmonds, the finance spokesperson considered his main rival for Opposition leadership, sits only on 8%.)

Labour can also take comfort from the fact that the Greens are holding firm at 9%.

That means Labour’s gains are coming mostly from the political centre – National soft voters drifting away in search of something that doesn’t sound like Luxon.

Polls, of course, are only a snapshot in time, a fleeting glimpse of mood rather than a forecast of momentum.

Labour is where it is largely by being a small target: staying out of the way while the Government finds new ways to trip over itself. It’s less a story of revival, more of restraint.

That approach carries its own risks. Te Pāti Māori’s evident ructions hint at growing pains and an ideological rift that could unsettle voters looking for stability.

The party’s disdain for political convention makes it a harder coalition partner, and a less predictable one.

Labour, too, has offered nothing in the way of fresh policy or vision. Voters are reacting to the Government rather than rallying around Labour’s ideas.

Its long-promised economic plan (more likely than not to have a form of capital gains tax at its centre) could yet shift the dial back toward National, especially if Luxon is replaced and the front bench is refreshed.

All that said, it remains remarkable that Labour finds itself competitive at all – two years on from a comprehensive routing and its economic credibility in tatters – with the same leader, and after barely lifting a finger.

*The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure NZ interviewed n=1050 eligible voters in New Zealand, aged 18+ online, between October 3-8, 2025. Margin of error +/- 3%. Data are weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters.

What do you think? Email sundayletters@stuff.co.nz. Please include your full name and address.