Christopher Luxon hits lowest popularity in past year as leaked poll reveals souring public mood

Wednesday, 28 January 2026

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has sunk to his lowest popularity in the past year, with a leaked poll showing more voters disapprove of him than approve – even after quelling leadership speculation and internal grumbling at the end of 2025.

The January Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll puts Luxon’s net favourability at -17%, down four points from December and the weakest result in the survey’s tracking since January last year.

Just 28% of voters view him favourably, while 44% hold an unfavourable opinion. The slump takes Luxon past his previous low point of -14% in October, when the Government was battling cost-of-living pressures and a run of damaging headlines.

Luxon remains solid with his base. Among National voters, he still posts a commanding net favourability of +60.7%.

Read more:

• New poll: Labour leads National, NZ First on the rise

• Who is up and who is down as Parliament wraps up for the year?

• State of Nation: Christopher Luxon says recovery ‘cut down’ in 2025

Outside that core, the picture darkens. He is underwater with every other voting bloc measured, including both of his coalition partners’ supporters. Among ACT voters, Luxon’s net favourability sits at -6.3%.

Within New Zealand First voters, it plunges to -41.5%.

Perhaps most concerning for National’s electoral prospects is Luxon’s standing with voters who are not currently aligned to any party. Among the unsure bloc, his net favourability is -42.2%, suggesting the Prime Minister is failing to connect with the voters elections are usually won or lost on.

The full poll places all major party leaders in net negative territory, meaning more voters view them unfavourably than favourably. The figures are:

• Chris Hipkins: 33% favourable and 37% unfavourable, for a net score of -4%

• Winston Peters: 35% favourable and 41% unfavourable, net -6%

• Christopher Luxon: 28% favourable and 44% unfavourable, net -17%

• David Seymour: 23% favourable and 47% unfavourable, net -24%

• Chlöe Swarbrick: 21% favourable and 49% unfavourable, net -28%

• Marama Davidson: 12% favourable and 51% unfavourable, net -39%

Trend-wise, Luxon and Seymour have consistently been underwater, while Hipkins has slipped back into negative territory after a brief period of mild positivity mid-2025.

The poll lands only weeks after Luxon moved to shut down talk of his leadership, firmly batting away end-of-year speculation and internal murmurs about his position.

The Prime Minister’s sliding numbers mirror a souring national mood.

The poll shows 49% of New Zealanders believe the country is heading in the wrong direction,' compared with 32.6% who say it is on the right track, a net country direction score of -16.4%, down nearly 10 points from December.

Cost of living remains the top concern, cited by 27.5% of voters, though intensity has eased slightly from last month. The economy follows at 14.8%, with health trailing at 8.8%.

Political preferences are sharply divided: National leads on economic management, while Labour maintains an advantage on social issues such as health and poverty.

A spokesperson for Luxon told The Post: “The PM doesn’t comment on polls and is focused on the response to last week’s weather events.”

The TPU released the headline numbers from the poll last week. It revealed that Labour is leading National, but coalition parties overall have strengthened their position.

The poll shows Labour gained 2.8 points to 34.4%, while National gained 1.5 points to 31.5%.

NZ First rose 3.8 points to 11.9%, marking its highest-ever result since Taxpayers’ Union-Curia polling began in January 2021.

The Greens dropped 3.1 points to 7.7%, ACT fell 1.9 points to 7%, and Te Pāti Māori dipped 0.1 points to 3%.

Combined projected seats put the centre-right up two to 63, while the centre-left fell two to 57.