Who is up and who is down as Parliament wraps up for the year?
Wednesday, 17 December 2025
Labour has surged to 38% support, opening up an 8-point lead over National and putting the party back in pole position to form the next government, according to a new poll.
The latest The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure New Zealand shows Labour riding a wave of momentum, climbing 11 points since the 2023 election to reach 38% support.
By contrast, National has fallen 8 points, now sitting at 30%, reflecting voter dissatisfaction with the current coalition.
Smaller parties are holding steady or shifting slightly: New Zealand First is up 3 points to 9%, Greens are down 4 points to 8%, ACT is down 1 point to 8%, and Te Pāti Māori has slipped 1 point to 2%.
All parties in Parliament except Labour have lost support since our last Freshwater Strategy poll in October.
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“The Labour Party got hammered in 2023 and their vote collapsed,” said Tim Hurdle, Freshwater Strategy's New Zealand collaborator.
“They’ve rebuilt some of that but it feels more like the Government hasn't been doing well and the economy has been weak.
“Labour's vote share has gone up, but it seems it's been put in the parking lot while people are trying to find something better than the status quo. I don't think they can be confident they'll hold those numbers.”
The overhang question
According to the Electoral Commission’s seat calculator, these numbers translate to a Parliament with Labour on 48 seats, National 43, New Zealand First 11, Greens 10, ACT 10, and Te Pāti Māori 6.
That would leave neither the left-bloc nor the current coalition grouping able to govern alone – a hung parliament – and position Winston Peters and his party as arbiters of government once again.
There are key caveats. The calculation assumes all incumbent seats are held on election night.
But swings away from National suggest it could lose key electorates, reducing its seat tally. And Te Pāti Māori’s six electorates may not all be retained given internal conflicts and declining party vote support.
How many electorates Te Pāti Māori (TPM) manages to win could subtly shift the balance of power in Parliament.
In New Zealand's political system, an “overhang” is created when a party wins more electorate seats than its share of the party vote justifies. Parliament must expand to accommodate these extra members.
This scenario played out in 2023 when two overhang seats for TPM and a delayed by-election for Port Waikato pushed the total number of MPs to 123.
The following projections for this poll assume that every party wins seats roughly in line with its share of the party vote and secures at least one electorate seat, excluding NZ First.
If TPM secures four electorate seats, Labour, Greens, and TPM together would hold 62 seats in a 121-seat Parliament, giving the left bloc a narrow but workable majority. Labour would sit on 48 seats, Greens on 10, and TPM on four, while National would hold 38, ACT 10, and NZ First 11.
If TPM wins only one electorate seat, its influence is slightly diminished. The left bloc would still maintain a slim majority of 61 seats in a 120-seat Parliament, with Labour at 48, Greens at 10, and TPM reduced to three seats. National, ACT, and NZ First remain unchanged.
In both scenarios, Labour would be in a position to govern, but the narrowness of the majority means every seat counts.
TPM’s reduced overhang would limit its leverage, while NZ First would continue to hold the potential to act as kingmaker.
But these scenarios come with significant qualifications. They rely on assumptions about electorate outcomes and party vote conversion that may not hold on election night, particularly for smaller parties.
Shifts in turnout, late swings in key seats, or parties failing to clear electoral hurdles could quickly upend this arithmetic.
“While the absolute party vote is important, results in electorate seats can also determine the Parliament,” Hurdle said.
“This is the nature of our electoral system, small shifts in the vote can change the outcome in very dramatic ways. Obtaining an overall majority can be challenging.'
Labour leader Chris Hipkins said the lift in support reflected voter frustration with the National-led government and a recalibration by Labour since its 2023 defeat.
“We’re really encouraged by the increase in support we’ve seen since the last election,” Hipkins said. “People are clearly very disappointed in this government, and they’ve seen a Labour Party that’s very focused, very disciplined and very committed to providing a pathway forward for New Zealand.”
He acknowledged the party’s previous campaign had failed to connect with voters.
“What we were offering at the last election wasn’t resonating with New Zealanders, and we heard that message well and truly at the ballot box,” he said. “We need to offer different things at the next election - and we will be.”
That included recent announcements on a capital gains tax that will fund three free doctors’ visits each year and a Future Fund to invest in infrastructure.
He dismissed Peters’ role as kingmaker. The NZ First leader has vowed not to work with Labour while Hipkins remains leader.
“Winston Peters always does what's in Winston Peters’ best interests. Anyone who votes for Winston Peters is basically taking a gamble,” he said. “They never know what they might get.”
Luxon said he doesn’t comment on public polls but added: “The great news is that we're getting positive daily economic news every day, and we want to see more Kiwis feeling it.”
Preferred PM: Hipkins ahead, Luxon on the rise
Hipkins remains the preferred prime minister, leading Christopher Luxon 45% to 39%, though Luxon has narrowed the gap, gaining 3 points since our October poll.
Voters rejecting both candidates fell four points to 10%, suggesting more are settling on a preferred leader as the election approaches.
“Chris Luxon is a hard worker and he’s relentless,” Hurdle said. “He’s shown with things like the Ikea opening that he can get in front of the economic recovery and sell the story and that’s starting to connect with the public.
“Chris Hipkins should be concerned that Chris Luxon makes himself the face of an economic recovery which in turn will lead to a recovery in the National Party poll rating.”
However, the country remains uneasy about the economy.
More than half of of voters (52%) think the country is heading in the wrong direction, down slightly from October, while 33% believe it’s on the right track.
When asked who is responsible for the current economic state, 25% blame the National-led coalition government, followed by 21% pointing to the previous Labour government.
The Reserve Bank is increasingly in the spotlight, with 9% of voters holding it responsible, up 3 points, while global events such as the pandemic, international markets, and geopolitical conflicts play a smaller role.
National (45%), NZ First (38%) and ACT (46%) voters think the previous Labour government is most responsible for the current state of the economy.
Labour (41%), Green (44%), Te Pāti Māori (25%), and minor party voters (27%) say the current government is most responsible.
Hipkins said this sentiment Hipkins was being driven by cost-of-living pressures and weakening economic indicators.
“The Prime Minister and Nicola Willis promised New Zealanders they had all the answers and that fixing the economy would be easy,” he said. “Instead, unemployment is up, growth is going backwards, and the cost of living is continuing to bite for Kiwi families.”
Voters were increasingly frustrated by instability under the current coalition, arguing they were “fed up with David Seymour and Winston Peters running circles around the Prime Minister and holding the country to ransom”.
Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,031 eligible voters in New Zealand, aged 18+ online, between 5-10 December 2025. Margin of Error +/- 3%. Data are weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters.
The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll is funded by Infrastructure NZ to encourage debate about issues that are important to the future of New Zealand.