The Post/Freshwater Strategy Poll: Christopher Luxon’s approval drops sharply

Friday, 20 February 2026

ANALYSIS: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s favourability rating has taken a significant hit in the latest The Post/Freshwater Strategy Poll with Infrastructure New Zealand.

The prime minister’s personal approval rating has fallen 14 points since the same poll in December, from -11 to -25.

Net favourability, or net approval, measures favourability minus unfavourability. If a politician is in negative territory, it means more people disapprove than approve of them or their performance.

Since August 2023, prior to the last election, Luxon has dropped 25 points on this metric.

But he is not the only politician to have gone backwards. Labour leader Chris Hipkins’ approval has also fallen significantly since August 2023, dropping 18 points from 17% net approval to -1%.

Even so, that gives him a sizeable, 24-point lead in favourability over first-term prime minister Luxon — something almost unheard of in modern New Zealand political history. Incumbency usually translates into a handy polling advantage as people begin to see the challenger as prime minister.

NZ First leader Winston Peters has a net favourability of -6%, Chlöe Swarbrick’s is -7%, and David Seymour brings up the rear, with the public viewing him even more unfavourably than Luxon at -29%. Seymour has also suffered the sharpest drop since August 2023, falling 35 points from 6% to -29%.

It is not only Luxon and Seymour who are on the nose. The National Party is also viewed less favourably than Labour. National has a net approval rating of -5%, while Labour is in positive territory at 8%. Both parties, however, have dropped five points since December 2025.

Jacinda Ardern remains the most popular recent politician in New Zealand, with a 12% net approval rating. The King is the only current (sort of) political figure to enjoy a net positive rating, at 5%.

Overall, this suggests a political class on the nose with a grumpy public.

Of note is the fact that the only leader to have improved his favourability rating since before the 2023 election is Winston Peters. That is reflected in NZ First’s higher poll ratings.

One key point to remember is that while the headline net number matters — and shows people are generally unimpressed — it is the movement in the comparative numbers that matters for voting intention.

Compared with the drops of the major leaders, Peters’ small uptick over the past two years looks relatively strong. Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick — who has only been measured since taking the co-leadership — has also remained relatively consistent.

Overall favourability may point more towards turnout. If voters do not like anyone, they may be less inclined to vote. But that too is not necessarily true if there is someone they dislike much more than the others and want either removed from or kept out of power.

The numbers could be that this is part of a more general February effect — where people are grumpy about bills, their job, a summer of average weather, and the prospect of the year ahead.

And it is not a phenomenon restricted to New Zealand. Political parties around the world are on the nose, and the inflation hangover from Covid-19 policies across the Western world has led to widespread voter dissatisfaction.

Of more concern for the ninth floor of the Beehive and the National Party is that the 13-point approval bounce Luxon received in the Post-Freshwater Strategy Poll last December may have been transitory or an outlier. He has essentially fallen back to where he was last October.

It is true that people vote for parties, not leaders. But in a system that has become more national and presidential through MMP, the internet and social media, the leader matters more than ever. He or she can boost or weigh on the vote.

Both major parties are challenged here, though the Labour leader’s position is far more predictable. The centre-left party was heavily defeated at the last election and the same leader remains in place. After the election, Hipkins remained as the best available option - a decision that has returned dividends for Labour ‒ but the challenge remains.

The scale of National’s and Luxon’s challenge, however, is unusual and significant. Combined with the fact its party vote appears to have more or less flatlined over the past six months, the party faces an uphill battle to claw votes from Labour or back from its coalition partners.

Winston Peters, by contrast, simply needs to keep doing what he is doing. In the 30th anniversary year of MMP, he remains the only politician who can credibly form a government with either major bloc — notwithstanding the obvious mutual loathing between him and Hipkins.

His assumed preference is the continuation of the current Government, ideally with a stronger NZ First. But in the event of a very close election, he will have options.

Freshwater Strategy interviewed 1039 eligible New Zealand voters aged 18+ online between February 6–12, 2026. Margin of error ±3%. Data weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters.

The Post/Freshwater Strategy Poll is funded by Infrastructure NZ to encourage debate about issues important to the future of New Zealand.

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