The other poll figures pointing to trouble for Christopher Luxon
Friday, 6 March 2026
National’s tumble in Friday’s Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll to 28% has set alarm bells ringing within the party ‒ with new pressure placed on Luxon’s leadership.
But it is far from the only poll showing challenges for National and leader Christopher Luxon.
Last month, the The Post/ Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure New Zealand saw the National Party down 8 points since the 2023 election, sitting at 30%, two points ahead of the Curia poll’s 28%.
That poll saw Luxon’s personal approval rating take a significant hit, falling 14 points since the same poll in December, from -11 to -25. Since August 2023, before the last election, Luxon dropped 25 points on this metric.
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Results from the February poll showed New Zealanders were unhappy with the Government’s direction, with more than half ‒ 55% ‒ believing the country is heading in the wrong direction and only 28% saying it is on the right track.
Economic unease was felt by voters, with more than a third ‒ 37% ‒ expecting their own household finances would worsen in the next year.
Labour scored the most trusted to manage the cost of living crisis, improve healthcare and hospital services and create jobs and reduce unemployment, all voted as the highest priority issues for voters.
But Labour leader Chris Hipkins’ approval rating also took a dive, dropping 18 points since 2023 from 17% net approval to -1%.
The latest 1News Verian poll in February also had National down, dropping 2% to 34%, while the Labour Party dropped 3% to 32%.
The poll saw Luxon drop in favourability ratings, dropping 3% but still neck and neck with Hipkins to be the most preferred prime minister with both leaders holding 20%.
Results from the Curia poll
National’s headline figure from Friday’s poll found its way to journalists before being published, showcasing how worrying it was for party insiders.
If the election was held tonight, the poll showed a narrow victory for a Labour-led Government:
Labour: 34.4% (+0.3 on the month prior)
National: 28.4% (-2.9)
Greens: 10.5% (+0.2)
NZ First: 9.8% (-0.8)
ACT: 7.5% (0.8)
It also had Luxon down one point to 21% for the preferred prime minister, while Hipkins boosted up 4.7 points to 22.7%.
Luxon’s net favourability is down three points to -19%, while Chris Hipkins is up three points to -5%.
Meanwhile 35.5% of those polled said the country is heading in the right direction, and 50.6% said it was heading in the wrong direction.
While National led Labour on the economy and spending, Labour had a lead on health, poverty, inflation, education, safety, housing, environment, and not increasing taxes ‒ likely an outcome of the LNG import terminal levy spat.
Why National might find this poll harder to ignore than others
National MPs often dismiss bad poll results, with Luxon himself almost never commenting on them.
But deputy leader Nicola Willis was open about how bad the results were when discussing the poll with Newstalk ZB today.
National MPs generally find it harder to ignore results from Curia, who also undertake private polling for the party itself ‒ not just the Taxpayers’ Union.
The polling company was founded by National’s long-standing pollster and blogger David Farrar, who John Key famously described as “the best pollster in New Zealand” after he was made prime minister for a third term in 2014.
Farrar has worked internally in the party, including for four National party leaders.
He was also the co-founder of the Taxpayers’ Union, which now sponsor this public monthly tracking poll.
The right-wing lobby group has attacked the Government relentlessly from the right in recent months.
Last year, the Taxpayers’ Union chairperson and former finance minister Ruth Richardson launched a campaign against Finance Minister Nicola Willis, sending fudge to newsrooms across the country accusing Willis of ‘fudging’ promises to get public spending down.
Meanwhile recent press releases from the Taxpayers’ Union criticised Luxon for U-turning on his no new taxes promise, saying it would “destroy his credibility,” and bowing down to Auckland mayor Wayne Brown by considering a bed tax.
Freshwater Strategy interviewed 1039 eligible New Zealand voters aged 18+ online between February 6–12, 2026. Margin of error ±3%. Data weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters.
The Post/Freshwater Strategy Poll is funded by Infrastructure NZ to encourage debate about issues important to the future of New Zealand.