The election battle will be fought in two places
Monday, 15 June 2026
Tim Hurdle is a former National Party senior adviser and is a director of several companies, including Museum Street Strategies, a public affairs firm, and is Freshwater Strategy’s New Zealand collaborator.
OPINION: The parties are warming their engines on the short political runway before the polls open for our November 7 election.
The June The Post / Freshwater Strategy poll with Infrastructure New Zealand poll shows the race is incredibly tight, as small changes in the percentages of the vote can create vastly different results. Voters will be starting to decide with whom they sit.
The Government is maintaining a narrow lead over the Opposition bloc. The Budget was focused on sober response to economic pressures, and unlike previous election years, there was no attempt to buy votes from middle New Zealand.
And with the summer economic recovery stalled, the political narrative has shifted. The energy crisis provoked by the conflict in the Middle East has unhooked confidence in the recovery. The voters fear a return to high inflation and expect the economy to decline.
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This election campaign will be about demonstrating economic competence and the capacity to control the cost of living. Big spending promises are more likely to damage credibility, than win new support.
Issues like crime and health are declining in importance, while there is steady decline in the belief the country is headed in the right direction.
Elections are determined by who can win over the middle voter.
At the 2023 general election, National won votes in Auckland and the provinces that had previously backed Jacinda Ardern’s Labour.
Their promise was to get the country ‘back on track’, but a lack of delivery on economic momentum saw support slowly decline from 38% at the election, down to a band around 30%.
With National recording 29% in this poll, this is remarkable for its consistency since the middle of 2025.
So far in 2026, the flat economy seems to be a direct correlation with National’s poll rating. The ability to achieve some upward momentum has so far seemed beyond them.
Looking at this poll, National strategists will take comfort that their base level of support seems to be locked in. But National can often focus on the votes it has, rather than trying to win the ones it needs to govern.
This economic situation seems to benefit ACT with their stronger line on fiscal deficit, putting them up 2%.
With the Treaty principles debate fading, the voter shift to economics will suit their core message. They will hope to build their way back to being the second strongest party in the coalition. David Seymour’s own approval is rising sharply as he shifts his focus to the economy.
Since the 2023 election, many voters have considered NZ First, reflecting Winston Peters’ high profile leadership.
As we head into the election campaign, he is openly targeting the National vote trying to lock in a higher level of support from 2023.
Previous election campaigns have often seen Peters pick up votes, but this time, he won’t benefit from the relatively larger amount of media attention election time brings him.
Peters has traditionally tried to drawn support from both sides of the political spectrum, but so far hasn’t openly chased Labour voters.
And with National no longer bound to a coalition agreement, we can expect National to attempt to use its economic credentials to pull back conservative voters flirting with him. They can return his fire with issues that question the wisdom of Peters desire for big spending solutions, in an era of fast rising debt and slow economic growth.
Labour had held a strong lead in 2025, but this always seemed too high. Chris Hipkins benefited from voters frustrated by the status quo. That support is proving to be a temporary parking spot, down to 35% in this poll.
As the harsh reality of global economic headwinds buffet Kiwis that soft support has begun to evaporate. Labour has so far shown a lack of solutions; struggling to deliver a distinct, credible alternative economic agenda.
Wage and salary earners are realising that opposing the Coalition's cuts isn't the same as offering a viable plan to grow the economy. National will be looking to win back these voters that backed them to 38% in 2023.
The global fuel shock has rewritten the terms of the 2026 campaign. National can’t preside over economic recovery. Squeezed by inflation and high interest rates, swinging voters are deeply cynical of both major parties.
The election battle will be fought in two major places, the traditional fight between Labour and National fighting to win back the middle voters that decide who forms the government.
And within the right bloc, ACT and NZ First jockeying for leverage in a second edition of the Coalition.
Past choices are irrelevant. Voters know that times are tough. Without a clear policy platform to address the twin pressures of inflation and rising borrowing costs, parties won’t be credible and will see support decline.
The party that can best articulate their economic plan will get lift off. Election 2026 is now boarding.
Freshwater Strategy interviewed n=1,038 eligible voters in New Zealand, aged 18+ online, between June 5-11. Margin of Error +/- 3%. Data are weighted to be representative of New Zealand voters.
The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll is funded by Infrastructure NZ to encourage debate about issues that are important to the future of New Zealand.