New poll has Labour in Government - and Opportunity closer to 5%
Wednesday, 17 June 2026
A new poll shows Labour narrowly retaking Government as a surge in support for the Green Party puts the left bloc over the edge ‒ even as Labour itself falls.
The monthly tracking poll from Anacta Consulting and Talbot Mills, obtained by The Post, is the third to suggest that the Budget delivered no real political gain for the Government.
Talbot Mills also conducts Labour’s internal polling, but this poll is conducted for its corporate clients.
For party vote support, it showed:
Labour at 34% (-2 from May)
National at 29% (No change)
Greens at 13% (+3)
NZ First at 12% (-2)
ACT at 6% (-1)
Opportunity at 3.3% (+0.5)
Te Pāti Māori at 2.6% (+0.4)
The pollster offers only rounded numbers for larger parties but more detailed results for those under the 5% threshold.
Read more:
The Post/Freshwater Strategy Poll: Is 30% now a ceiling for National, rather than a floor?
Nicola Willis says she didn’t put Budget together thinking about ‘next week’s poll’
Assuming every party currently in Parliament won at least one seat, this would result in Labour winning 42 seats, the Green Party 16, and Te Pāti Māori three - giving the left bloc a narrow one-seat majority of 61. If Opportunity (formerly known as TOP) won a single electorate seat it would be able to decide the Government.
The results come just days after the release of The Post/Freshwater Strategy Poll, which also had Labour ahead of National, but saw the coalition edging the left bloc out of Government.
Roughly 49% of Kiwis in the poll thought the country was going in the “wrong direction” compared with 41% who thought it was going in the “right direction,” and 10% who were unsure.
The preferred prime ministerial stakes were particularly tight, with Labour leader Chris Hipkins on 21% and Christopher Luxon just behind him on 20%. NZ First leader Winston Peters was on 14%, Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick was on 10% and ACT leader David Seymour was on 6%.
Asked specifically if they thought the Budget was good for New Zealand overall, 26% said it would be good and 23% bad. Voters were more unfavourably disposed towards the Budget when asked if it would be good or bad for them personally ‒ 27% said it would be bad while 13% said it would be good.
Last Budget 34% said it would be bad for them personally ‒ a record high in the poll, which goes back to 1996.
The most popular Budget policy was the $450 million set aside as an emergency fund for the fuel crisis, which had 65% approval.
The poll of 1021 adults was undertaken from June 1 to June 10 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.